Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns

被引：392

作者：

Greenwood, Robin ^{[1
]}

Shleifer, Andrei ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Univ, Sch Business, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[2] Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

来源：

REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES | 2014年 / 27卷 / 03期

关键词：

MUTUAL FUND FLOWS; STOCK RETURNS; SPECULATIVE DYNAMICS; TIMING ABILITY; RARE DISASTERS; ASSET MARKETS; LONG-RUN; RISK; VOLATILITY; INVESTMENT;

D O I：

10.1093/rfs/hht082

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

We analyze time series of investor expectations of future stock market returns from six data sources between 1963 and 2011. The six measures of expectations are highly positively correlated with each other, as well as with past stock returns and with the level of the stock market. However, investor expectations are strongly negatively correlated with model-based expected returns. The evidence is not consistent with rational expectations representative investor models of returns.

引用

页码：714 / 746

页数：33

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