Development of a Dynamic Diagnosis Grading System for Infertility Using Machine Learning

Question Can machine learning be used to establish a dynamic scoring system to assist clinicians in predicting the severity of infertility in patients? Findings In this prognostic study using a dynamic scoring system established based on the medical records of 6048 couples with infertility in which women underwent in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer, the overall stability test result of the system was 95.94%. Meaning This machine learning-derived algorithm may assist clinicians in making an efficient and accurate initial judgment on the condition of patients with infertility. This prognostic study assesses whether machine learning can be used to develop a dynamic scoring system for predicting the severity of infertility in patients. Importance Many indicators need to be considered when judging the condition of patients with infertility, which makes diagnosis and treatment complicated. Objective To construct a dynamic scoring system for infertility to assist clinicians in efficiently and accurately assessing the condition of patients with infertility. Design, Setting, and Participants This prognostic study reviewed 95 868 medical records of couples with infertility in which women had undergone in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer at the Reproductive Center of Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, in Wuhan, Hubei, China, from January 2006 to May 2019. A dynamic diagnosis and grading system for infertility was constructed. The analysis was conducted between May 20, 2019, and April 15, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures Patients were divided into pregnant and nonpregnant groups according to eventual pregnancy results. The evaluation index system was constructed based on the test results of the significant difference between the 2 groups of indicators and the clinician's experience. Random forest machine learning was used to determine the weight of the index, and the entropy-based feature discretization algorithm classified the abnormality of the index and the patient's condition. A 10-fold cross-validation method was used to test the validity of the system. Results A total of 60648 couples with infertility were enrolled, in which 15 021 women became pregnant, with a mean (SD) age of 30.30 (4.02) years. A total of 45627 couples were in the nonpregnant group, with a mean (SD) age among women of 32.17 (5.58) years. Seven indicators were selected to build the dynamic grading system for patients with infertility: age, body mass index, follicle-stimulating hormone level, antral follicle count, anti-Mullerian hormone level, number of oocytes, and endometrial thickness. The importance weight of each indicator obtained by the random forest algorithm was 0.1748 for age, 0.0785 for body mass index, 0.0581 for follicle-stimulating hormone level, 0.1214 for antral follicle count, 0.1616 for anti-Mullerian hormone level, 0.2307 for number of oocytes, and 0.1749 for endometrial thickness. The grading system divided the condition of the patient with infertility into 5 grades from A to E. The worst E grade represented a 0.90% pregnancy rate, and the pregnancy rate in the A grade was 53.82%. The cross-validation results showed that the stability of the system was 95.94% (95% CI, 95.14%-96.74%). Conclusions and Relevance This machine learning-derived algorithm may assist clinicians in making an efficient and accurate initial judgment on the condition of patients with infertility.