Simulation study on LDL cholesterol target attainment, treatment costs, and ASCVD events with bempedoic acid in patients at high and very-high cardiovascular risk

Background and aims The LDL cholesterol (LDL-C) treatment goals recommended by the 2019 ESC/EAS guidelines are only achieved in a minority of patients. The study objective was to estimate the impact of bempedoic acid treatment on LDL-C target attainment, drug costs, and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events. The simulation used a Monte Carlo approach in a representative cohort of German outpatients at high or very-high cardiovascular risk. Additionally to statins, consecutive treatment with ezetimibe, bempedoic acid, and a PCSK9 inhibitor was simulated in patients not achieving their LDL-C goal. Considered were scenarios without and with bempedoic acid (where bempedoic acid was replaced by a PCSK9 inhibitor when LDL-C was not controlled). Results The simulation cohort consisted of 105,577 patients, of whom 76,900 had very-high and 28,677 high cardiovascular risk. At baseline, 11.2% of patients achieved their risk-based LDL-C target. Sequential addition of ezetimibe and bempedoic acid resulted in target LDL-C in 33.1% and 61.9%, respectively. Treatment with bempedoic acid reduced the need for a PCSK9 inhibitor from 66.6% to 37.8% and reduced drug costs by 35.9% per year on stable lipid-lowering medication. Compared to using only statins and ezetimibe, this approach is projected to prevent additional 6,148 ASCVD events annually per 1 million patients, whereas PCSK9 inhibition alone would prevent 7,939 additional ASCVD events annually. Conclusions A considerably larger proportion of cardiovascular high- and very-high-risk patients can achieve guideline-recommended LDL-C goals with escalated lipid-lowering medication. Bempedoic acid is projected to substantially decrease the need for PCSK9 inhibitor treatment to achieve LDL-C targets, associated with reduced drug costs albeit with fewer prevented events.