Planning for aquaculture development: A system dynamics approach

With world fisheries exploited at or beyond their maximum sustainable yield, government agencies and international development organizations are turning to aquaculture as a mean for narrowing the ever increasing gap between the supply and demand for aquatic products. Nevertheless, the development of the aquaculture industry is faced by several challenges such as limitations on wild fry supply, availability of quality feed, and the adoption of hatchery technology, to name a few. This paper presents a system dynamics model that allows development agencies to evaluate different Polices pertaining to the sustainable development of the aquaculture industry. The paper begins with an analysis of the effects of an increase in demand on the capacity of the aquaculture industry. The paper then investigates the effect of different policies aimed at resolving potential bottlenecks limiting the growth of the aquaculture industry. By running these models, a deeper understanding of the problems and challenges facing the development of the aquaculture industry is obtained. Moreover, by utilizing systems dynamics, a planner can gain better insight into the sustainability of varies development policies.