A Study of the Sustainable Development of China's Phosphorus Resources Industry Based on System Dynamics

As a non-renewable ore, phosphate rock is a very important strategic resource. However, in the process of the exploitation and utilization, there are severe waste and environmental pollution problems which are disadvantageous to the sustainable development of phosphorus resources. In order to promote the sustainable development of China's phosphorus resources industry, this research proposes a system dynamics model with two sub-models for thermal phosphoric acid and wet phosphoric acid separately, considering to the actual situation of regional phosphorus resources industry. This model focuses on industrial, financial, technological and environmental policies for the development of phosphorus resources industry, such as phosphorus resources exploitation, product structure adjustment, waste management and other policies. To find the optimum policy combination of sustainable development, the model which employs resource productivity, economic benefits, ecological efficiency and social satisfaction as objects, explores development situations of phosphorus resources industry and assesses the impacts of the policies by comparative policy scenarios. Results show that under the condition of excess capacity, optimization of phosphate fertilizer product portfolio is more advantageous compared with capacity expansion to increase production value of phosphorus chemical industry. And the combination of total consumption control policy of phosphate rock and acts to promote technical progress improves resource productivity. The implementation of waste recycling policies is conducive to improve continuously the eco-efficiency, and is not conducive to increase economic benefit due to more investment cost. Finally, this study indicates that an effective combination of total consumption control policy, product structure adjustment and appropriate environmental protection will be beneficial to the sustainable development of phosphorus resources industry. In addition, it contributes not only to the conservation of natural resources, but also to a reasonable disposition of the investment which can promote technological progress in industrial weak links. Moreover, the results can provide relevant references for policy makers to make appropriate decisions.