Modelling land use changes and their impact on soil erosion and sediment supply to rivers

The potential for surface runoff and soil erosion is strongly affected by land use and cultivation. Therefore the modelling of land use changes is important with respect to the prediction of soil degradation and its on-site and off-site consequences. Land use changes during the past 250 years in the Dijle catchment (central Belgium) were analysed by comparing four historical topographic maps (1774, 1840, 1930 and 1990). A combination of land use transformation maps and biophysical land properties shows that certain decision rules are used for the conversion of forest into arable land or vice versa. During periods of increasing pressure on the land, forests were cleared mainly on areas with low slope gradients and favourable soil conditions, while in times of decreasing pressure land units with steep and unfavourable soil conditions were taken out of production. Possible future land use patterns were generated using stochastic simulations based on land use transformation probabilities. The outcome of these simulations was used to assess the soil erosion risk under different scenarios. The results indicate that even a relatively limited land use change, from forest to arable land or vice versa, has a significant effect on regional soil erosion rates and sediment supply to rivers. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.