Estimating the burden of A( H1N1)pdm09 influenza in Finland during two seasons

In Finland, the pandemic influenza virus A(H1N1)pdm09 was the dominant influenza strain during the pandemic season in 2009/2010 and presented alongside other influenza types during the 2010/2011 season. The true number of infected individuals is unknown, as surveillance missed a large portion of mild infections. We applied Bayesian evidence synthesis, combining available data from the national infectious disease registry with an ascertainment model and prior information on A(H1N1)pdm09 influenza and the surveillance system, to estimate the total incidence and hospitalization rate of A(H1N1)pdm09 infection. The estimated numbers of A(H1N1)pdm09 infections in Finland were 211000 (4% of the population) in the 2009/2010 pandemic season and 53000 (1% of the population) during the 2010/2011 season. Altogether, 1.1% of infected individuals were hospitalized. Only 1 infection per 25 was ascertained.