Quantifying Spillover of an Urban Invasive Vector of Plant Disease: Asian Citrus Psyllid (Diaphorina citri) in California Citrus

Urban environments frequently play an important role in the initial stages of biological invasions, often serving as gateways for non-native species, which may propagate to nearby natural and agricultural ecosystems in the event of spillover. In California, citrus trees are a dominant ornamental and food plant in urban and peri-urban environments. We studied the invasion dynamics of the Asian citrus psyllid (Diaphorina citri), which became widespread in urban areas of southern California starting in 2008, to understand the factors driving its more recent invasion in commercial citrus groves. Using a multi-year monitoring database, we applied a suite of models to evaluate the rate at which groves accrued their first D. citri detection and the cumulative number of detections thereafter. Grove characteristics and landscape context proved to be important, with generally higher invasion rates and more cumulative detections in groves that were larger, had more edge, or had more perforated shapes, with greater urbanization intensity favoring more rapid invasion, but with inconsistent effects of distance to roads among models. Notably, distance to urban or other grove occurrences proved to be among the most important variables. During the early phase of D. citri invasion in the region, groves closer to urban occurrences were invaded more rapidly, whereas more recently, invasion rate depended primarily on proximity to grove occurrences. Yet, proximity to urban and grove occurrences contributed positively to cumulative D. citri detections, suggesting a continued influx from both sources. These results suggest that inherent features of agroecosystems and spatial coupling with urban ecosystems can be important, temporally dynamic, drivers of biological invasions. Further consideration of these issues may guide the development of strategic responses to D. citri's ongoing invasion.