Calibration of the inertial consistency index to assess road safety on horizontal curves of two-lane rural roads

One of every four road fatalities occurs on horizontal curves of two-lane rural roads. To this regard, many studies have been undertaken to analyze the crash risk on this road element. Most of them were based on the concept of geometric design consistency, which can be defined as how drivers' expectancies and road behavior relate. However, none of these studies included a variable which represents and estimates drivers' expectancies. This research presents a new local consistency model based on the Inertial Consistency Index (ICI). This consistency parameter is defined as the difference between the inertial operating speed, which represents drivers' expectations, and the operating speed, which represents road behavior. The inertial operating speed was defined as the weighted average operating speed of the preceding road section. In this way, different lengths, periods of time, and weighting distributions were studied to identify how the inertial operating speed should be calculated. As a result, drivers' expectancies should be estimated considering 15 s along the segment and a linear weighting distribution. This was consistent with drivers' expectancies acquirement process, which is closely related to Short-Term Memory. A Safety Performance Function was proposed to predict the number of crashes on a horizontal curve and consistency thresholds were defined based on the ICI. To this regard, the crash rate increased as the ICI increased. Finally, the proposed consistency model was compared with previous models. As a conclusion, the new Inertial Consistency Index allowed a more accurate estimation of the number of crashes and a better assessment of the consistency level on horizontal curves. Therefore, highway engineers have a new tool to identify where road crashes are more likely to occur during the design stage of both new two-lane rural roads and improvements of existing highways.