Combined Technique of Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment in Air Traffic Management System

According to the advantages of both fault tree analysis (FTA) and Bayesian networks (BN) in risk assessment, a new tee que combing FTA and BN is proposed to provide a robust probabilistic method of reasoning under uncertainty. By this method we can not only get the ordinary results but also obtain some additional data such as posterior probabilities at modeling and analysis level. The paper introduces the algorithm of converting fault tree FT to BN, takes risk assessment of mid-air collision in air traffic management (ATM) system as an example, and discusses the advantages of applying this technique to ATM safety risk assessment. Modeling and calculation are processed using GeNle software. Result shows that the proposed FT-BN combined technique can model and assess the risk more easily and accurately.