The use of the personalized estimate of death probabilities for medical decision making

Data coming from the French national statistics on the cause of deaths are used to calculate the probabilities of death from pathologies. These probabilities are calculated according to age, sex, and place of residence of the patient to "personalize" the estimate. This individual prediction of the risk of death is proposed for pathologies for which the feasibility and the utility of prevention measures had been demonstrated. Relative risks of death according to the socioprofessional category, which are coming from the scientific literature, are used to adjust the probabilities of death as a function of the patient socioprofessional category. The aim of this work is to guide a scientist toward a prevention strategy according to the age and characteristics of patient. The use of computers by the scientists will make possible the diffusion of such tool of prediction to improve a personalized prevention. (C) 2000 Academic Press.