The inflation aversion of the Bundesbank: A state space approach

A simple backward-looking Taylor rule is estimated in a time-varying coefficient framework with quarterly German data for the period 1975-1998. The main finding is that the inflation aversion of the Bundesbank was not constant over time and exhibits some sudden and large shifts during the period of monetary targeting. There are phases with low and with high inflation aversion. These findings provide an explanation why the estimated inflation coefficient in backward-looking Taylor rules often does not exceed one and violates the implications of theoretical models. Moreover, the results provide evidence that the Bundesbank followed the so-called 'opportunistic approach' to disinflation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.