A risk analysis of fuselage splices containing multi-site damage and corrosion

A risk analysis for fuselage splice joints containing multi-site damage (MSD) and corrosion has been conducted in this work using the software PRISM. The test data of crack growth history obtained using lap splice specimens were used in preparing the input data for PRISM and in validating the analysis. The MSD crack in the specimens was characterized by a single aggregate crack and the median crack growth curve was derived and used in the analysis. The initial quality state of the splices was represented by an equivalent initial flaw size distribution (EIFSD), which was backtracked using the distribution of time to crack initiation (TTCI). The critical crack length criterion was employed to predict the probability of failure (POF) at first linkup and final failure. The analysis results obtained are in good agreement with existing test data. It was found that the input data preparation played a key role in obtaining accurate predictions of POF.