Commodity prices and GDP growth

被引：23
|
作者：
Ge, Yiqing [1 ]
Tang, Ke [1 ]
机构：
[1] Tsinghua Univ, Inst Econ, Beijing, Peoples R China
来源：
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS | 2020年 / 71卷
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
GDP growth; Commodity prices; Basis; Predictability; BUSINESS CYCLES; OIL; MACROECONOMY; IMPACT; RUN;
D O I：
10.1016/j.irfa.2020.101512
中图分类号：
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号：
0202 ;
摘要：
This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power. Overall, commodity prices can be considered a leading indicator of economic growth; increasing commodity prices and basis values indicate a stronger future economy.
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页数：10
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