Imperfect information and the business cycle

被引：15

作者：

Collard, Fabrice ^{[2
]}

Dellas, Harris ^{[1
]}

Smets, Frank ^{[3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Bern, Dept Econ, CEPR, VWI, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland

[2] Univ Adelaide, Sch Econ, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia

[3] CEPR, European Cent Bank, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany

[4] Univ Ghent, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany

来源：

JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS | 2009年 / 56卷

关键词：

New Keynesian model; Imperfect information; Signal extraction; Bayesian estimation; MONETARY-POLICY; INFLATION DYNAMICS; MODEL; NEUTRALITY; SHOCKS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.011

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

Imperfect information has played a prominent role in modern business cycle theory. This paper assesses its importance by estimating the new Keynesian (NK) model under alternative informational assumptions. One Version focuses on confusion between temporary and persistent disturbances. Another, on unobserved variation in the inflation target of the Central Bank. A third on persistent mis-perceptions of the state of the economy (measurement error). And a fourth assumes perfect information (the standard NK-DSGE version). Imperfect information is found to contain considerable explanatory power for business fluctuations. Signal extraction seems to provide a conceptually satisfactory, empirically plausible and quantitatively important business cycle mechanism. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：S38 / S56

页数：19

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