Dominant Characteristics of Early Autumn Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Its Impact on Winter Eurasian Climate

The present study investigated dominant characteristics of autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) interannual variations and impacts of September-October (SO) mean SIC anomalies in the East Siberian-Chukchi-Beaufort (EsCB) Seas on winter Eurasian climate variability. Results showed that the decreased SO EsCB sea ice is favorable for tropospheric warming and positive geopotential height anomaly over the Arctic region one month later through transporting much more heat flux to the atmosphere from the open water. When entering the early winter (November-January), enhanced upward propagation of quasi-stationary planetary waves in the mid-high latitudes generates anomalous EliassenPalm flux convergence in the upper troposphere, which decelerates the westerly winds and maintains the positive geopotential height anomaly in the Arctic region. This anticyclonic anomaly extends southward into central-western Eurasia and leads to evident surface cooling there. Two months later, it further develops downstream accompanied by a deepened trough, making northeastern China experience a colder late winter (January-March). Meanwhile, an anticyclonic anomaly over the eastern North Pacific excites a horizontal eastward wave train and contributes to a positive (negative) geopotential height anomaly around Greenland (Europe), favoring a negative surface temperature anomaly over western Europe. In addition, the stratospheric polar vortex is also significantly weakened in the wintertime, which is attributed to a decreased meridional temperature gradient, and decelerated westerly winds provide a favorable condition for more quasi-stationary planetary waves propagating into the stratosphere. Some major features of atmospheric responses to EsCB sea ice loss are well reproduced in the CAM4 sensitivity experiments.