Long-term and seasonal Caspian Sea level change from satellite gravity and altimeter measurements

We examine recent Caspian Sea level change by using both satellite radar altimetry and satellite gravity data. The altimetry record for 2002-2015 shows a declining level at a rate that is approximately 20 times greater than the rate of global sea level rise. Seasonal fluctuations are also much larger than in the world oceans. With a clearly defined geographic region and dominant signal magnitude, variations in the sea level and associated mass changes provide an excellent way to compare various approaches for processing satellite gravity data. An altimeter time series derived from several successive satellite missions is compared with mass measurements inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data in the form of both spherical harmonic (SH) and mass concentration (mascon) solutions. After correcting for spatial leakage in GRACE SH estimates by constrained forward modeling and accounting for steric and terrestrial water processes, GRACE and altimeter observations are in complete agreement at seasonal and longer time scales, including linear trends. This demonstrates that removal of spatial leakage error in GRACE SH estimates is both possible and critical to improving their accuracy and spatial resolution. Excellent agreement between GRACE and altimeter estimates also provides confirmation of steric Caspian Sea level change estimates. GRACE mascon estimates (both the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) coastline resolution improvement version 2 solution and the Center for Space Research (CSR) regularized) are also affected by leakage error. After leakage corrections, both JPL and CSR mascon solutions also agree well with altimeter observations. However, accurate quantification of leakage bias in GRACE mascon solutions is a more challenging problem.