The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis

This article studies repeat or circular migration between the host and home countries using panel data for Germany, distinguishing between factors generating single moves, circular migration, and absorption. Migrants are more likely to leave early after their first arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likely when they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated, the return probability is mainly affected by remittances and family considerations. Circular migration is fostered by vocational training in the host country and older age. Whereas male migrants are 9 percent more likely to return to their home country than female migrants, gender is not significant for predicting the return to move back to Germany.