Electrical Energy Consumption Forecasting for Turkey using Grey Forecasting Technics with Rolling Mechanism

被引：0

作者：

Kusakci, Ali Osman ^{[1
]}

Ayvaz, Berk ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Istanbul Commerce Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Istanbul, Turkey

来源：

2015 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON KNOWLEDGE-BASED ENGINEERING AND INNOVATION (KBEI) | 2015年

关键词：

grey forecasting; rolling mechanism; electricity energy consumption;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

The accuracy of electricity energy consumption prediction is an important issue effecting energy investment decisions as well as environmental policies. Although there are several forecasting techniques, selection of the most accurate technique is vital for energy planners. In this study, grey forecasting techniques with rolling mechanism (RM) have been used for modeling and predicting yearly net electrical energy consumption in Turkey. Three different grey models are generated to find the best model. The best grey model with RM is used for energy consumption forecasting from 2014 to 2030. Furthermore, the effect of RM is studied by comparing the obtained results with a Grey Model without RM. Results show nonhomogeneous Grey Model with RM improves forecasting accu racy.

引用

页码：8 / 13

页数：6

共 50 条

[1] Grey prediction with rolling mechanism for electricity demand forecasting of Turkey
Akay, Diyar
Atak, Mehmet
[J]. ENERGY, 2007, 32 (09) : 1670 - 1675
[2] Forecasting Natural Gas Consumption in Turkey Using Grey Prediction
Boran, F. E.
[J]. ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY, 2015, 10 (02) : 208 - 213
[3] Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of Turkey using an optimized grey model
Hamzacebi, Coskun
Es, Huseyin Avni
[J]. ENERGY, 2014, 70 : 165 - 171
[4] Forecasting of Turkey's Coal Consumption Using Grey Prediction Technique
Karakurt, I.
Aydin, G.
Kaya, S.
Hamzacebi, C.
[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE 24TH INTERNATIONAL MINING CONGRESS AND EXHIBITION OF TURKEY, IMCET 2015, 2015, : 77 - 82
[5] Forecasting the Building Energy Consumption in China Using Grey Model
Meng Dun
Lifeng Wu
[J]. Environmental Processes, 2020, 7 : 1009 - 1022
[6] Forecasting the total energy consumption in Ghana using grey models
Katani, Emmanuel Kwadzo
[J]. GREY SYSTEMS-THEORY AND APPLICATION, 2019, 9 (04) : 488 - 501
[7] Forecasting the Building Energy Consumption in China Using Grey Model
Dun, Meng
Wu, Lifeng
[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESSES-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, 2020, 7 (03): : 1009 - 1022
[8] Forecasting Chinese greenhouse gas emissions from energy consumption using a novel grey rolling model
Xu, Ning
Ding, Song
Gong, Yande
Bai, Ju
[J]. ENERGY, 2019, 175 : 218 - 227
[9] An Improved Grey Approach for Energy Consumption Forecasting
Wang, Xi-ping
[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON RISK MANAGEMENT & ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT, VOLS 1 AND 2, 2008, : 488 - 492
[10] Forecasting of Electrical Energy Consumption in Slovakia
Pavlicko, Michal
Vojtekova, Maria
Blazekova, Ol'ga
[J]. MATHEMATICS, 2022, 10 (04)

← 1 2 3 4 5 →