Forecasting of Turkey's Coal Consumption Using Grey Prediction Technique

被引：0

作者：

Karakurt, I. ^{[1
]}

Aydin, G. ^{[1
]}

Kaya, S. ^{[1
]}

Hamzacebi, C. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Karadeniz Tech Univ, Min Engn Dept, Trabzon, Turkey

[2] Karadeniz Tech Univ, Dept Ind Engn, Trabzon, Turkey

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE 24TH INTERNATIONAL MINING CONGRESS AND EXHIBITION OF TURKEY, IMCET 2015 | 2015年

关键词：

Grey prediction technique; mean absolute percentage error; mean absolute error;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P5 [地质学];

学科分类号：

0709 ; 081803 ;

摘要：

Coal is by far the most plentiful energy resource in Turkey. Domestically produced coal accounts for more than half of the country's total energy production. Coal has been consumed primarily for power generation, steel manufacturing, and cement production. Due to its importance in country's energy balance, modeling and forecasting of coal consumption is an important issue for government, energy sector investors and other corporations in Turkey. In this study, therefore, coal consumption of Turkey was forecasted using a Grey modeling (1,1) technique. The data used in the study was composed of coal consumption in Turkey for the period of 1965-2013. Using these historical data, the coal consumption of Turkey was forecasted for the period of 2014-2025. Additionally, the performance of forecasting was measured using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE).

引用

页码：77 / 82

页数：6

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