Strain-stream model of epidemic spread in application to COVID-19

被引：2
|
作者：
Trigger, S. A. [1 ,2 ]
Ignatov, A. M. [3 ]
机构：
[1] Russian Acad Sci, Joint Inst High Temp, 13-19 Izhorskaia Str, Moscow 125412, Russia
[2] Humboldt Univ, Inst Phys, D-12489 Berlin, Germany
[3] Russian Acad Sci, Prokhorov Gen Phys Inst, 38 Vavilova St, Moscow 119991, Russia
来源：
EUROPEAN PHYSICAL JOURNAL B | 2022年 / 95卷 / 11期
关键词：
COMPETITIVE-EXCLUSION; POPULATION;
D O I：
10.1140/epjb/s10051-022-00457-z
中图分类号：
O469 [凝聚态物理学];
学科分类号：
070205 ;
摘要：
The recently developed model of the epidemic spread of two virus strains in a closed population is generalized to the situation typical for the couple of strains delta and omicron, when there is a high probability of omicron infection soon enough after recovering from delta infection. This model can be considered as a kind of combination of SIR and SIS models for the case of competition of two strains of the same virus with different contagiousness in a population. The obtained equations and results can be directly implemented for practical calculations of the replacement of strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. A comparison between the estimated replacement time and the corresponding statistics shows reasonable agreement. Graphic abstract
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页数：8
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