Formation of extreme cold-air pools in elevated sinkholes:: An idealized numerical process study

High-resolution numerical simulations with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) are presented to investigate the processes leading to the formation of extreme cold-air pools in elevated sinkholes. The simulations are idealized in the sense that they are conducted with idealized model topography and with idealized large-scale conditions representing an undisturbed wintertime high pressure situation. After a number of model modifications, the temperature fields, radiative cooling rates, and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the model were in good agreement with the available observations, giving confidence that the model is suitable for this process study. The model results indicate a number of necessary preconditions for the formation of an extreme cold-air pool in a sinkhole. Apart from undisturbed clear weather, a small heat conductivity of the ground and an effective mechanism drying the low-level air during the cooling process are required. The importance of the heat conductivity results from the fact that the net cooling of the ground is only a small residual between the net radiative heat loss and the ground heat flux. As a consequence, extreme cooling events are strongly favored by the presence of freshly fallen powder snow. The necessity of a drying mechanism is related to the strong temperature dependence of the saturation vapor pressure, decreasing by a factor of about 2.5 per 10 K temperature decrease at temperatures below -20 degrees C. Except in cases of very dry ambient air, a nocturnal cooling by 25 or 30 K (as observed in extreme cases) must be accompanied by an order-of-magnitude reduction of the water vapor mixing ratio to prevent the formation of fog. According to the simulations, the most effective drying mechanism is provided by the formation of ice clouds and the subsequent sedimentation of the ice particles. Near the surface, direct deposition of water vapor at the ground also seems to play a significant role.