The Impact of the Thai Motorcycle Transition on Road Traffic Injury: Thai Cohort Study Results

Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of motorcycle to car transitioning and urbanisation on traffic injury rates in Thailand. Design Analysis of two consecutive surveys of a large national cohort study. Setting Thailand. Participants The data derived from 57,154 Thai Cohort Study (TCS) participants who provided relevant data on both the 2005 and 2009 surveys. Primary and secondary outcome measures Motorcycle and car traffic crash injury self-reported in 2009, with twelve months' recall. Results In 2009, 5608(10%) participants reported a traffic crash injury. Most crashes involved a motorcycle (74%). Car access increased and motorcycle use decreased between 2005 and 2009. Among those who used a motorcycle at both time points, traffic injury incidence was 2.8 times greater compared to those who did not use a motorcycle at either time point. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to test longitudinal and cross sectional factors associated with traffic crash injury: in the adjusted model, cars were negatively and motorcycles positively associated with injury. Living in an urban area was not injury protective in the adjusted model of traffic crash injury. Conclusions Ongoing urbanisation in Thailand can be expected to lead to further reductions in road traffic injuries based on transition from motorcycles to cars in urban areas. Cities, however, do not provide an intrinsically safer traffic environment. To accommodate a safe transition to car use in Thailand, traffic infrastructural changes anticipating the growing car density in urban areas is warranted.