Epidemiological control measures and predicted number of infections for SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: case study Serbia march-april 2020

被引:6
|
作者
Djurovic, Igor [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Montenegro, Dept Elect Engn, Cetinjska 2, Podgorica 81000, Montenegro
[2] Montenegrin Acad Sci & Arts, Rista Stijovica 5, Podgorica 81000, Montenegro
关键词
Epidemiology; Infectious disease; Public health; SARS-CoV-2; Serbia; Prediction model; Exponential growth; Generalized Gamma model;
D O I
10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04238
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Background: In this paper, we are studying the response of the Serbian government and health authorities to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the early stage of the local outbreak between Mar. 15 th and Apr. 15 th , 2020 by pre- dictive numerical models. Such a study should be helpful to access the effectiveness of measures conducted to suppress the pandemic at a local scale. Methods: We have performed extrapolation of the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the first stable set of data exploiting exponential growth (linear in logarithmic scale). Based on obtained coef ficients it is performed pre- diction of a number of cases until the end of March. After initial exponential growth, we have changed predictive model to the generalized gamma function. Obtained results are compared with the number of infections and the prediction for the remainder of the outbreak is given. Findings: We have found that the daily growth rate was above 21.5% at the beginning of the period, increased slightly after the introduction of the State of Emergency and the first set of strict epidemical control measures. It took about 13 days after the first set of strict measures to smooth daily growth. It seems that early government measures had an only moderate impact to reduce growth due to the social behavior of citizens and in flux of diaspora returning to Serbia from highly affected areas, i.e., the exponential growth of infected persons is kept but with a reduced slope of about 14 -15%. Anyway, it is demonstrated that period required that any measure has effect is up to 15 days after introduction, firstly to exponential growth with a smaller rate and after to smooth function representing the number of infected persons below exponential growth rate. Conclusions: Obtained results are consistent with findings from other countries, i.e., initial exponential growth slows down within the presumed incubation period of 2 weeks after adopting lockdown and other non - pharmaceutical epidemiological measures. However, it is also shown that the exponential growth can continue after this period with a smaller slope. Therefore, quarantine and other social distancing measures should be adopted as soon as possible in a case of any similar outbreak since alternatives mean prolonged epidemical sit- uation and growing costs in human life, pressure on the health system, economy, etc. For modeling the remainder of the outbreak generalized gamma function is used showing accurate results but requiring more samples and pre- processing (data filtering) concerning exponential part of the outbreak. We have estimated the number of infected persons for the remaining part of the outbreak until the end of June.
引用
收藏
页数:10
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] SARS-CoV-2 Infections among Recent Organ Recipients, March-May 2020, United States
    Jones, Jefferson M.
    Kracalik, Ian
    Rana, Meenakshi M.
    Nguyen, Ann
    Keller, Brian C.
    Mishkin, Aaron
    Hoopes, Charles
    Kaleekal, Thomas
    Humar, Abhinav
    Vilaro, Juan
    Im, Gene
    Smith, Lou
    Justice, April
    Leaumont, Collette
    Lindstrom, Stephen
    Whitaker, Brett
    La Hoz, Ricardo M.
    Michaels, Marian G.
    Klassen, David
    Kuhnert, Wendi
    Basavaraju, Sridhar, V
    EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2021, 27 (02) : 552 - 555
  • [22] Predicting the Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Italian Regions: The Calabria Case Study, February 2020-March 2022
    Branda, Francesco
    Abenavoli, Ludovico
    Pierini, Massimo
    Mazzoli, Sandra
    DISEASES, 2022, 10 (03)
  • [23] Vitamin D deficiency and SARS-CoV-2 infection: A retrospective case-Control study with big-data analysis covering March 2020 to March 2021
    Neira Alvarez, Marta
    Navarro Jimenez, Gema
    Anguita Sanchez, Noemi
    Bermejo Olano, Ma del Mar
    Queipo, Rocio
    Benavent Nunez, Maria
    Parralejo Jimenez, Alejandro
    Lopez Yepes, Guillermo
    Saez Nieto, Carmen
    PLOS ONE, 2023, 18 (09): : e0277388
  • [24] Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence in Canadian Blood Donors, April 2020 to March 2021: Improving Accuracy with Multiple Assays
    Tuite, Ashleigh R.
    Fisman, David
    Abe, Kento T.
    Rathod, Bhavisha
    Pasculescu, Adrian
    Colwill, Karen
    Gingras, Anne-Claude
    Yi, Qi-Long
    O'Brien, Sheila F.
    Drews, Steven J.
    MICROBIOLOGY SPECTRUM, 2022, 10 (01):
  • [25] Changes in SARS-CoV-2 Positivity Rate in Outpatients in Seattle and Washington State, March 1-April 16, 2020
    Randhawa, April Kaur
    Fisher, Leigh H.
    Greninger, Alexander L.
    Li, Shuying Sue
    Andriesen, Jessica
    Corey, Lawrence
    Jerome, Keith R.
    JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, 2020, 323 (22): : 2334 - 2336
  • [26] Case-control study of behavioural and societal risk factors for sporadic SARS-CoV-2 infections, Germany, 2020-2021 (CoViRiS study)
    Rosner, Bettina M.
    Falkenhorst, Gerhard
    Kumpf, Isabella
    Enssle, Maren
    Hicketier, Andreas
    Doerre, Achim
    Stark, Klaus
    Wilking, Hendrik
    EPIDEMIOLOGY & INFECTION, 2024, 152
  • [27] Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among Persons Entering China From April 16 to October 12, 2020
    Ren, Ruiqi
    Zhang, Yanping
    Li, Qun
    McGoogan, Jennifer M.
    Feng, Zijian
    Gao, George F.
    Wu, Zunyou
    JAMA-JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, 2021, 325 (05): : 489 - 492
  • [28] SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Populations in Camp Lemonnier, Djibouti, from April 2020 to January 2022
    Arnold, Catherine E.
    Voegtly, Logan J.
    Stefanov, Emily K.
    Lueder, Matthew R.
    Luquette, Andrea E.
    Miller, Robin H.
    Miner, Haven L.
    Bennett, Andrew J.
    Glang, Lindsay
    McGinnis, Tara N.
    Reisinger, Kristie E.
    Dugan, Jae W.
    Mangat, Michael A.
    Silberger, Daniel J.
    Pavlicek, Rebecca L.
    Watters, Chaselynn M.
    Rice, Gregory K.
    Malagon, Francisco
    Cer, Regina Z.
    Eggan, Stephen M.
    Bishop-Lilly, Kimberly A.
    VIRUSES-BASEL, 2022, 14 (09):
  • [29] World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 pandemic on March 11, 2020. SARS-CoV-2
    Tuzun, Furkan
    SOSYOEKONOMI, 2020, 28 (44) : 7 - 8
  • [30] SARS-CoV-2 testing in the Slovak Republic from March 2020 to September 2022-summary of the pandemic trends
    Janostiakova, Nikola
    Gnip, Andrej
    Kodada, Dominik
    Saade, Rami
    Blandova, Gabriela
    Mikova, Emilia
    Tibenska, Elena
    Repiska, Vanda
    Minarik, Gabriel
    FRONTIERS IN MEDICINE, 2023, 10