Japan's shifting strategy toward the rise of China

After examining different theoretical expectations of how Japan might respond strategically to the rise of China, this article analyzes the evolution of Japan's policy toward China from 1972 to 2006. It argues that Japan has shifted away from the 'friendship diplomacy' paradigm to a mixed strategy that involves both positive engagement and realistic balancing to hedge against the potential threats that China may pose in the future. Japan is engaged in a vigorous domestic debate about China policy that centers around four options: cooperative engagement with a soft hedge, competitive engagement with a hard hedge, balancing and containment, and strategic accommodation. The current mixed strategy of engagement and hedging is consistent with different theoretical traditions such as offensive realism, defensive realism, and liberalism. Future developments such as Japan-China interactive effects, shifts in the military power balance, and changes in US strategy, however, could steer Japan to make choices that point in a certain theoretical direction as opposed to others.