Modeling wheat and triticale winter hardiness under current and predicted winter scenarios for Central Europe: A focus on deacclimation

Winter hardiness depends on the ability of plants to tolerate a wide spectrum of environmental stresses, which can be affected by climate change in complex ways. Here, empirical Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSS) models of winter survival (WS) of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and triticale (Triticosecale x Wittmack) were created using data from six years of field experiments at multiple locations throughout Poland. These included 553 winter wheat and 155 triticale accessions. Our aims were to: 1) predict WS on the basis of meteorological data; 2) identify the most critical weather events affecting WS of winter wheat and triticale under Polish conditions; and 3) predict WS for the simulated winters of 2040, 2060 and 2080 under climate change scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 for the experimental site with the lowest mean WS rate during the field experiments. The empirical models showed a high R-2 for winter wheat (0.751), and a low R-2 for winter triticale (0.160), because of the low winter damage to triticale observed during the experiments. The key climate factors affecting WS varied between species. Winter wheat was affected by winter severity, the number of freezing thawing cycles, the thermal vegetation index and the freezing index in various winter months. Triticale was affected by late winter ice encasement and high numbers of freeze-thaw events. The predictions indicated that the WS of both winter wheat and triticale may decrease in the future, especially when more extreme climate change scenarios were considered. The main issue will be cold deacclimation connected with climate warming which will be more important for WS than the general increase in minimum winter temperatures. This finding indicates that deacclimation tolerance should be included in wheat and triticale breeding programs as a trait crucial for WS under future winters, at least in Central Europe.