Fertility transition in Rwanda: what does the trend in nuptiality reveal?

Recent literature on fertility trend in Rwanda indicates that the country is undergoing a fertility transition since fertility has declined from 6.1 births to 4.2 between 2005 and 2015. According to the fertility transition theory, the decline of fertility follows change in nuptiality. In Rwanda, the trend in nuptiality pattern over the period has however not yet been investigated. This research seeks to fill that gap by describing the trend in marriage timing between 2005 and 2015 and assess the effect of education and residence on that timing. Data come from the 2005, 2010 and 2015 Rwanda Demographic and Health Surveys, women files. The study population includes all women of reproductive age, 15-49 years. The outcome variables are the proportion of women never-married and the median age at first marriage. The key independent variables are period (year), education and residence type. The study used descriptive statistics and Cox proportional hazard regression. Results indicate that, over the 10 years of study, there have been a continuing increase of the proportions of women never-married and the median ages at first marriage. Education and urbanization have been found to have a delaying effect on marriage timing. The study concludes that the observed decline in fertility is associated with the rise in age at marriage. The combined effects of increasing number of women reaching the secondary education or higher and their low risks to marry at young age, with that of progress in contraceptive use among these educated women lead to expect a continuing fertility transition.