The variability of ice phenomena on the rivers of the Baltic coastal zone in the Northern Poland

The main purpose of the research was to determine the conditions affecting ice phenomena, including the three-phase cycle of ice: expansion, retention and decay of the ice cover on selected rivers of the Baltic coastal zone in the Northern Poland (Przymorze region). The analysis has been elaborated for the years 1951-2010 against the backdrop of currently occurring climatic changes, with particular emphasis on the development and phase variability of the NAO. The article presents the impact of the variability in atmospheric circulation which has manifested in an increase in air temperature, over the last 20 years, on thermal conditions during winter periods in the South Baltic Coastal Strip. The increase in air temperature has contributed to an increase in the temperature of river waters, thus leading to a shortening of the duration of ice phenomena on rivers in the Przymorze region. The article also brings to light an increased occurrence of winter seasons classified as cool, and a disruption in the occurrence of periods classified as normal over the last 30 observed years. The research has demonstrated a significant dependence between the seasonal change in air temperature and the variability of thermal conditions of water, which has a direct impact on the variability of the icing cycle of rivers in the Przymorze region. The authors also show that the variability in forms of ice phenomena for individual river sections is determined by the local factors, i.e. anthropogenic activity, impact of urbanized areas or inflow of pollutants.