Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand

被引：3

作者：

McKay, Alisdair ^{[1
]}

Wieland, Johannes F. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Bank Minneapolis, Minneapolis, MN 55480 USA

[2] Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

来源：

AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW-INSIGHTS | 2022年 / 4卷 / 01期

关键词：

INVESTMENT TAX INCENTIVES; MONETARY-POLICY; INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION; CONSUMPTION; MODELS; PRICE; RISK;

D O I：

10.1257/aeri.20200804

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We study the monetary transmission mechanism in a quantitative fixed-cost model of durable goods demand. We show that aggregate demand is substantially more sensitive to contemporaneous interest rates than to forward guidance about future interest rates. Reducing the real interest rate one year from now increases output by only 41 percent as much as reducing the real interest rate today. The power of forward guidance declines further at longer horizons. We show analytically and quantitatively that this result is driven by the sensitivity of the extensive margin of durable adjustment to the contemporaneous user cost.

引用

页码：106 / 122

页数：17

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