Decadal epidemiology of malaria in KwaZulu-Natal, a province in South Africa targeting elimination

Background: Although malaria remains a noteworthy disease in South Africa, the provinces are at differing stages of the malaria elimination continuum. KwaZulu-Natal has consistently reported the lowest number of cases over the past 5 years and it is expected that the goal of elimination will be achieved in this province over the next few years. The study reports on few key indicators that realistically represents the provinces progress over the past decade. Local and imported morbidity and mortality is seen as the key indicator as is malaria in children under the age of five and pregnant women. The only vector control intervention in the province is indoor residual spraying (IRS) and this gives an estimate of the population protected by this intervention. Methods: Trend analysis was used to examine the changing epidemiology in KwaZulu-Natal over the past decade from 2008 to 2018. The data used in this decadal analysis was obtained from the provincial Department of Health. Since malaria is a medically notifiable disease, all malaria cases diagnosed in the province are reported from health facilities and are captured in the malaria information system in the province. Results: The results have shown that imported cases are on the increase whilst local cases are decreasing, in keeping with an elimination objective. Preventing secondary cases is the key to reaching elimination. Only 10% of the cases reported occur in children under 5 years whereas the cases in pregnant women account for about 1% of the reported cases. Over 85% of the houses receive IRS and this is also the same proportion of the population protected by the intervention. Conclusion: Several challenges to elimination have been identified but these are not insurmountable. Although there are major impediments to achieving elimination, the changing epidemiology suggests that major strides have been made in the past 10 years and KwaZulu-Natal is on track to achieving this milestone in the next few years.