Changes in Child Undernutrition and Overweight in India From 2006 to 2021: An Ecological Analysis of 36 States

Objectives: We evaluated changes in priority indicators of child growth from 2006 to 2021 and examined the role of human development measures in these changes. Methods: We estimated cumulative and annualized changes in state- and district-level child growth indicators using 3 rounds of National Family Health Surveys (2005-2006, 2015-2016, 2019-2021) in 36 states. Outcomes included stunting, underweight, wasting, and overweight. Human development was measured using a principal components analysis of 9 ecological indicators. We contrasted expected versus observed changes in district-level growth outcomes between 2016 and 2021 based on changes in development indicators using 2-way Blinder Oaxaca decomposition. Results: From 2006 to 2021, the prevalence of stunting, underweight, and wasting decreased by 12.3, 10.3, and 0.7 percentage points, respectively, while the prevalence of overweight increased by 1.9 percentage points. The annualized rate of withinstate change for stunting was lower from 2016 to 2021 compared with the 2006 to 2016 period, while the rate of change in overweight was higher. Simultaneously, all 9 human development indicators improved between 2006 and 2021. A unit increase between 2016 and 2021 in the human development score predicted a -5.1 percentage point (95% confidence interval=-5.8, -4.4) change in stunting, yet observed stunting declined by just -2.5 percentage points. Conclusions: From 2016 to 2021, population-level reduction in child stunting has slowed and the rise in child overweight has accelerated, relative to the 10 years preceding this period.