Soybean varieties portfolio optimisation based on yield prediction

One of the biggest problems in agriculture is concerned with seed selection. Wrong choice of seed variety cannot be compensated with fertilisation, spraying or the use of mechanisation later in the season. The purpose of this work was to design the strategy for selecting soybean varieties that should be planted on the test farm in order to maximise yield in the following season, based on the knowledge acquired from heterogeneous historical data. We propose weighted histograms regression to predict the yield of different varieties and compare our method to conventional regression algorithms. Based on the predicted yield, we perform portfolio optimisation to come up with the optimal selection of seed varieties that is to be planted. Presented algorithms and results were produced within the Syngenta Crop Challenge. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.