Two or Three Children? Turkish Fertility at a Crossroads

Female employment and education in Turkey are still relatively low compared to other European countries, while fertility levels are high. Turkey stands on the brink of an important social transition. Increasing female education and employment are being accompanied by decreases in fertility. Using census and survey data, we find that parents' decision for or against a third child is of particular importance for fertility levels in Turkey. Educated women participating in the formal labor market are most likely to decide against larger family size in comparison to inactive or unemployed women. Their contribution to household income seems to be critical and cannot be given up, especially if the couple already has two children. Policies enabling women to combine work and family life, which have been proven effective in other European countries, emerge therefore as useful to avoid fertility declining below replacement levels in Turkey.