Tourist Flow Forecasting Approach

This article discusses the issues of using methods of analyzing and forecasting seasonal time series to model the tourist flow as one of the most significant parameters of tourism operations. The authors considered reasonability of using the Holt-Winters approach to model time series, estimated model's coefficients, and proposed a forecasting model. The authors also demonstrated use of the Holt-Winters approach to model parameters of tourism operations for a "short series" - the tourist flow to the Republic of Crimea at this stage of the peninsula's development.