AggreRATE-Pred: a mathematical model for the prediction of change in aggregation rate upon point mutation

Motivation: Protein aggregation is a major unsolved problem in biochemistry with implications for several human diseases, biotechnology and biomaterial sciences. A majority of sequence-structural properties known for their mechanistic roles in protein aggregation do not correlate well with the aggregation kinetics. This limits the practical utility of predictive algorithms. Results: We analyzed experimental data on 183 unique single point mutations that lead to change in aggregation rates for 23 polypeptides and proteins. Our initial mathematical model obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.43 between predicted and experimental change in aggregation rate upon mutation (P-value <0.0001). However, when the dataset was classified based on protein length and conformation at the mutation sites, the average correlation coefficient almost doubled to 0.82 (range: 0.74-0.87; P-value <0.0001). We observed that distinct sequence and structure-based properties determine protein aggregation kinetics in each class. In conclusion, the protein aggregation kinetics are impacted by local factors and not by global ones, such as overall three-dimensional protein fold, or mechanistic factors such as the presence of aggregation-prone regions.