SEIRS epidemics with disease fatalities in growing populations

被引:14
|
作者
Britton, Tom [1 ]
Ouedraogo, Desire [2 ]
机构
[1] Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
[2] Univ Ouaga I Pr Joseph Ki Zerbo, EDST, Lab Math & Informat LAMI, 03 BP 7021, Ouagadougou 03, Burkina Faso
关键词
SEIRS epidemic; Threshold quantities; Initial growth; Endemic level; MODELS;
D O I
10.1016/j.mbs.2017.11.006
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major outbreaks is deterministic. Depending on the values of the parameters, the following scenarios are possible. i) The disease dies out quickly, only infecting few; ii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows exponentially, but the fraction of infected individuals remains negligible; iii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected grows initially quicker than the population, the disease fatalities diminish the growth rate of the population, but it remains super critical, and the fraction of infected go to an endemic equilibrium; iv) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows initially quicker than the population, the diseases fatalities turn the exponential growth of the population to an exponential decay.
引用
收藏
页码:45 / 59
页数:15
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