SEIRS epidemics with disease fatalities in growing populations
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作者:
Britton, Tom
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Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, SE-10691 Stockholm, SwedenStockholm Univ, Dept Math, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Britton, Tom
[1
]
Ouedraogo, Desire
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Univ Ouaga I Pr Joseph Ki Zerbo, EDST, Lab Math & Informat LAMI, 03 BP 7021, Ouagadougou 03, Burkina FasoStockholm Univ, Dept Math, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Ouedraogo, Desire
[2
]
机构:
[1] Stockholm Univ, Dept Math, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
[2] Univ Ouaga I Pr Joseph Ki Zerbo, EDST, Lab Math & Informat LAMI, 03 BP 7021, Ouagadougou 03, Burkina Faso
An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major outbreaks is deterministic. Depending on the values of the parameters, the following scenarios are possible. i) The disease dies out quickly, only infecting few; ii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows exponentially, but the fraction of infected individuals remains negligible; iii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected grows initially quicker than the population, the disease fatalities diminish the growth rate of the population, but it remains super critical, and the fraction of infected go to an endemic equilibrium; iv) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows initially quicker than the population, the diseases fatalities turn the exponential growth of the population to an exponential decay.
机构:
CNR, Inst Complex Syst, Via Madonna del Piano 10, I-50019 Florence, Italy
Italian Embassy Israel, 25 Hamered St, IL-68125 Tel Aviv, IsraelNorthwestern Polytech Univ, Ctr OPT IMagery Anal & Learning OPTIMAL, Xian 710072, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
机构:
Virginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USAVirginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
Parikh, Nidhi
Youssef, Mina
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Virginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USAVirginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
Youssef, Mina
Swarup, Samarth
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Virginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USAVirginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
Swarup, Samarth
Eubank, Stephen
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Virginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USAVirginia Tech, Virginia Bioinformat Inst, Networks Dynam & Simulat Sci Lab, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA
机构:
Univ Michigan, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Pathol, La Jolla, CA 92093 USAUniv Michigan, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
Volz, Erik M.
Pond, Sergei L. Kosakovsky
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Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Med, La Jolla, CA 92093 USAUniv Michigan, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
Pond, Sergei L. Kosakovsky
Ward, Melissa J.
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Univ Edinburgh, Sch Biol Sci, Edinburgh EH9 3JR, Midlothian, ScotlandUniv Michigan, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
Ward, Melissa J.
Brown, Andrew J. Leigh
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Univ Edinburgh, Sch Biol Sci, Edinburgh EH9 3JR, Midlothian, ScotlandUniv Michigan, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
Brown, Andrew J. Leigh
Frost, Simon D. W.
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Univ Cambridge, Dept Vet Med, Cambridge CB3 0ES, EnglandUniv Michigan, Dept Epidemiol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA