Predicting the aggravation of coronavirus disease-19 pneumonia using chest computed tomography scans

Presently, coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is spreading worldwide without an effective treatment method. For COVID-19, which is often asymptomatic, it is essential to adopt a method that does not cause aggravation, as well as a method to prevent infection. Whether aggravation can be predicted by analyzing the extent of lung damage on chest computed tomography (CT) scans was examined. The extent of lung damage on pre-intubation chest CT scans of 277 patients with COVID-19 was assessed. It was observed that aggravation occurred when the CT scan showed extensive damage associated with ground-glass opacification and/or consolidation (p < 0.0001). The extent of lung damage was similar across the upper, middle, and lower fields. Furthermore, upon comparing the extent of lung damage based on the number of days after onset, a significant difference was found between the severe pneumonia group (SPG) with intubation or those who died and non-severe pneumonia group (NSPG) >= 3 days after onset, with aggravation observed when >= 14.5% of the lungs exhibited damage at 3-5 days (sensitivity: 88.2%, specificity: 72.4%) and when >= 20.1% of the lungs exhibited damage at 6-8 days (sensitivity: 88.2%, specificity: 69.4%). Patients with aggravation suddenly developed hypoxemia after 7 days from the onset; however, chest CT scans obtained in the paucisymptomatic phase without hypoxemia indicated that subsequent aggravation could be predicted based on the degree of lung damage. Furthermore, in subjects aged >= 65 years, a significant difference between the SPG and NSPG was observed in the extent of lung damage early beginning from 3 days after onset, and it was found that the degree of lung damage could serve as a predictor of aggravation. Therefore, to predict and improve prognosis through rapid and appropriate management, evaluating patients with factors indicating poor prognosis using chest CT is essential.