Natural lake level fluctuation and associated concordance with water quality and aquatic communities within small lakes of the Laurentian Great Lakes region

Long-term (similar to 20 year) data on water level, water quality and aquatic biota from four remote research areas in the Laurentian Great Lakes region were compiled to reveal patterns of natural water-level fluctuation (WLF) and associated effects on water quality and aquatic communities. Of the 16 natural lakes (no dam impoundment and lowest possible anthropogenic disturbance) yearly amplitude in water level did not exceed 1.27 m (x = 0.26 +/- 0.15 m) and yearly average water levels did not deviate greater than 0.75 m (x = 0.10 +/- 0.11 m) from the long-term mean. Linear and waveform regression analyses revealed a significant (P <= 0.05) decreasing trend in water levels and a 10-year oscillation in WLFs. Similarly, linear regression analysis demonstrated a significant reduction in yearly amplitude WLF over time. Correlation analyses revealed significant correlations with water quality parameters (DOC, Ca2+, Conductivity, pH, SO42-) and WLFs in Boreal Shield research areas. Of the long-term biotic information available (periphyton, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish) only macroinvertebrates demonstrated a significant relationship with natural WLFs. Species richness followed a unimodal response (P = 0.002, r(2) = 0.66) with richness decreasing in years when water levels were either higher or lower than the long-term mean. The novel results of this study demonstrate patterns in natural WLF and associated correlations with water quality and biota across multiple lakes within the Laurentian Great Lakes region. The results are congruent with the intermediate disturbance hypothesis and have direct implications for reservoir management and climate change modeling.