Long-Term Forecasting Method for Power Electronics-Based System Design

被引：0

作者：

Sandelic, Monika ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Yichao ^{[1
]}

Peyghami, Saeed ^{[1
]}

Sangwongwanich, Ariya ^{[1
]}

Blaabjerg, Frede ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Aalborg Univ, AAU Energy, DK-9220 Aalborg, Denmark

来源：

2022 17TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON PROBABILISTIC METHODS APPLIED TO POWER SYSTEMS (PMAPS) | 2022年

关键词：

Long-term forecasting; power electronics; reliability; power system design; RELIABILITY;

D O I：

10.1109/PMAPS53380.2022.9810651

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

Failure of power electronics can significantly impact the long-term power system reliability, especially for the systems with a high penetration level of the renewable energy-based units. Therefore, the analysis of power electronics reliability impact on the optimum system design needs to be included in the long-term planning. However, current long-term forecasting methods cannot provide generation and demand profiles suitable for the power electronics reliability evaluation typically due to a low time resolution. In this paper, a long-term forecasting method for power electronics-based system design is proposed. The method employs statistical and artificial intelligence-based models to provide forecasting profiles and their probability of occurrence with a high time resolution over the whole long-term planning horizon. The case study results show that the accuracy of the forecast profiles obtained with the developed model is suitable for power electronics reliability analysis.

引用

页数：6

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