Hybrid analysis of gene dynamics predicts context-specific expression and offers regulatory insights

Motivation: To understand the regulatory pathways underlying diseases, studies often investigate the differential gene expression between genetically or chemically differing cell populations. Differential expression analysis identifies global changes in transcription and enables the inference of functional roles of applied perturbations. This approach has transformed the discovery of genetic drivers of disease and possible therapies. However, differential expression analysis does not provide quantitative predictions of gene expression in untested conditions. We present a hybrid approach, termed Differential Expression in Python (DiffExPy), that uniquely combines discrete, differential expression analysis with in silico differential equation simulations to yield accurate, quantitative predictions of gene expression from time-series data. Results: To demonstrate the distinct insight provided by DiffExpy, we applied it to published, in vitro, time-series RNA-seq data from several genetic PI3K/PTEN variants of MCF10a cells stimulated with epidermal growth factor. DiffExPy proposed ensembles of several minimal differential equation systems for each differentially expressed gene. These systems provide quantitative models of expression for several previously uncharacterized genes and uncover new regulation by the PI3K/PTEN pathways. We validated model predictions on expression data from conditions that were not used for model training. Our discrete, differential expression analysis also identified SUZ12 and FOXA1 as possible regulators of specific groups of genes that exhibit late changes in expression. Our work reveals how DiffExPy generates quantitatively predictive models with testable, biological hypotheses from time-series expression data.