Analysis of the impacts of wind power forecast error on power system operation

With increasing penetration of renewable energy resources, the uncertain nature of these intermittent resources can introduce power dispatch problems resulting in serious risks to power system operational performance and reliability. Wind generation forecasts are crucial for power system scheduling and operation. In this study, a probabilistic method is proposed to assess the effects that wind generation forecast errors have on the dispatched power flow following short-term wind generation forecasts. Case studies have been conducted using a 29-bus reduced order model of the Great Britain power system under different scenarios. It is shown that the translation of wind plant forecast errors to errors in dispatched wind forecasts is non-linear at high penetration levels.