Demographic change in the Balkans since the end of the 1980s

Throughout Eastern Europe, the 90s witnessed the collapse of the communist regimes and the far-reaching economic and social changes this set in train, and in the Balkans the decade was marked by a series of wars resulting from the breakup of the former Yugoslavia. As well as heavy loss of life, these conflicts have caused massive movements of population, both voluntary and forced, the effects of which are still being felt. Refugees from the former Yugoslavia numbered 917 000 at the end of 1999. The deterioration in living standards consequent on the transition to the market economy has caused large numbers of people to migrate from Bulgaria and, especially, Albania, where 16% of the population left the country between 1990 and 1998. Until 1997, it was also responsible far a stagnation and even fall in life expectancy at birth in all countries of the region with the exception of Croatia and Slovenia. Since then, however, rapid improvements have occurred and the level of longevity observed in 1990 has been exceeded. At the same time, the indicators of nuptiality and fertility have registered a sharp fall, though to a somewhat lesser degree in the former Yugoslavia. In the light of the changes described, the specific features of the Balkans as regards demographic behaviour are not easy to identify. The impact on these countries of longstanding membership of the socialist bloc and its sudden demise, for the moment masks any other differences, at least at the national level. While the specific characteristic of the Balkans lies in the diversity of regional situations originating in the heterogeneity of the population, this has been singularly reduced as a result of the operations of "ethnic cleansing" carried out in the former Yugoslavia over the last ten years.