A New Multi-Point Estimate Method on Uncertain Power Flow

In modern power system, practically, power flow is the basic information for security and stability analysis, economic dispatch, state estimation, etc. However, due to the uncertainties, it is difficult to obtain the accurate value ahead of time, so how to deal with the uncertainty of power flow is a problem we must face seriously. In this paper, a new multi-point estimate method based on Nataf transformation and Gauss-Hermite integration has been proposed. To be more exact, the focus of this approach is to change the uncertain power flow problem into a response function with multi random variables. One of the main advantages is that the computation precision is improved significantly compared with traditional point estimate method. Simulation results illustrate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.