Does China's International Competitiveness Fluctuate in Consistency with PPP Equilibrium?

Purpose - The aim of this study is to examine whether China's exchange rate follows an equilibrium process and consequently to answer the question of whether or not China's international competitiveness fluctuates in consistency with equilibrium. Design/methodology/approach - The theoretical background of the paper relies on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis, while the econometric methodology is mainly based on a nonlinear two-regime Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) unit root test. Findings - The main finding is that China's price competitiveness was not constantly following a disequilibrium process. The two-regime threshold model shows that PPP equilibrium was confirmed in periods of relatively high - compared to the estimated threshold - rate of real yuan appreciation. Moreover, it is implied that the fixed exchange rate regime cannot ensure external balance since it can neither establish equilibrium in the foreign exchange market, nor confirm that China's international competitiveness adjustment follows an equilibrium process. Practical implications - The results do not imply that China acts as a currency manipulator. However, a main policy implication of the paper is that China should continue appreciating the yuan to establish external balance. Originality/value - This paper is the first which accounts for a nonlinear two-regime process toward a threshold, which is defined to be the rate of change in China's international competitiveness. Consequently, the paper draws attention to the role of China's international competiveness in accepting the PPP hypothesis.