Measurement of debris mass changes and assessment of the dam-break flood potential of earthquake-triggered Hattian landslide dam

The Hattian landslide, which was triggered by the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, formed one of largest landslide dams in the world and it has posed a serious threat of flooding to people living in the lower reach of the Jhelum River. In order to understand deformation occurring in the body of the dam, physical measurements using a Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) were conducted. Gradual deformation and slowly developing backward erosion initially were observed, leading eventually to a sudden creation of a deep hollow on the downstream slope of the landslide dam. The dimensions of this eroded gully were determined by laser scanning, and the results showed a significant loss of soil volume and a large change in the body of the dam. A breach formation model was used to predict the outflow hydrograph generated by constant downcutting of dam during a breaching event. A run-off analysis of the outflow hydrograph was conducted to evaluate inundation levels of flood waves in case the dam is breached. Hazardous downstream locations were identified near the junction of the Karli and Jhelum Rivers, suggesting a need for early warning system in order to avoid loss of lives.