Research of market crisis early warning method based on ARCH model

The management environments of enterprises are complicated and changeable; the market competition is fierce day by day, too. It causes the uncertain factor to emerge in an endless stream; enterprises may meet the burst of crisis at any time. This text proceeds from ARCH model and theory of crisis management, set up the early warning index system of the crisis of enterprise's market, means to use quantity structure market police law in advance of crisis, by studying on laws of police in advance of market crisis, let enterprises be able to foresee the influence degree that the accident works to their own market clearly, make the corresponding response in time, reduce losses to the minimum.