Impact of Natural Gas Price on Electricity Price Forecasting in Turkish Day-Ahead Market

被引：0
|
作者：
Poyrazoglu, Oguzhan Goktug [1 ]
Poyrazoglu, Gokturk [2 ]
机构：
[1] Bilkent Univ, Mech Engn, Ankara, Turkey
[2] Ozyegin Univ, Elect & Elect Engn, Istanbul, Turkey
来源：
2019 IEEE 1ST GLOBAL POWER, ENERGY AND COMMUNICATION CONFERENCE (GPECOM2019) | 2019年
关键词：
electricity price forecasting; natural gas price; price formation; multiple linear regression; interaction regression; lagged price;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号：
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要：
The electricity is a regular commodity that is being sold and bought in a highly transparent and efficient market in Turkey. The market is operated by EXIST and an hourly energy price is formed for every hour in the day-ahead market. In Sept. 2018, EXIST also found a central natural gas market in Turkey which enables a ground for all shareholders in the natural gas industry. This study examines the impact of natural gas prices formed in the market on the electricity price. Different predictors are tested to lower the mean absolute percentage error. Addition of past natural gas price into the forecasting model reduces the error from 15.85% to 14.31% when the average of the last two weeks' natural gas price is used. This may indicate that the current natural gas price affects the electricity market two weeks later. And the final model also reached the 6.67% error for a Saturday, which is a significantly accurate forecast for a volatile electricity market.
引用
收藏
页码：435 / 439
页数：5
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