A Fuzzy System Dynamics Approach for Evaluation of Iran's New Demographic Policy

today, the Iran like many other countries has been facing many difficulties including economic problems, weather condition crisis, environmental problems, etc. Such problems have led to genesis of some serious concerns like migration of financiers and especially academic layer of the society to other countries. Based on last actuary of the statistics center of Iran, this country, with the population of approximately 77 millions, is one of the most populated countries in the Middle East. Recently, a "population increase" policy has been legislated that by considering current situation of this country, some experts believe it needs more meticulous analysis. This country has experienced a magnificent increase of population during the second half of the 20th century and regardless of this fact that the birth rate has considerably descended, the population of Iran is still increasing. Also this country with having large proportion of young people (nearly 50 percent of country is below 35 years old), owns consequential population momentum, which has worried some specialists of this realm about consequences of population increase in this country. In this paper, we are investigating the issue to develop and utilize a system dynamics model based on Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), to asses this policy from different aspects and further to analyze its consequences on other socio-economic factors like occupation and environmental condition of the country. Simulation model of this system dynamics approach, demonstrates that if the population system of Iran proceeds with current birth rate, economical system of the country and its subsystems will collapse after approximately 85 years. While by implementing the new policy of increasing population (with only 1 percent increase in birth rate), the collapse point of the system will decrease to 60 years.