Evaluating Patent Rights With Possible Patent Litigation

This paper examines how possible patent infringement and litigation may affect patent holders' renewal decisions as well as our evaluation of underlying patent value. We utilize the renewal records of the EPO (European Patent Office) patents and estimate a stochastic patent renewal model in which patent holders face possible infringement and litigation costs. Estimation results indicate that when such possibilities exist, patent holders' renewal behavior will change substantially, and our estimates of patent value based on a stochastic renewal model become significantly higher. Model simulations also reveal that the possible patent infringement and litigation, litigation costs, and patent renewal costs all play important roles in inventors' patenting behavior.