Forecast of flood in chaohu lake basin of china based on grey-markov theory

被引：7

作者：

Li Xiang ^{[1
]}

Wang Xinyuan ^{[1
,2
]}

Shao Wei ^{[3
]}

Xia Linyi ^{[1
]}

Zhang Guangsheng ^{[1
]}

Tian Bing ^{[1
]}

Li Wenda ^{[1
]}

Peng Peng ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Anhui Normal Univ, Nat Resources & Tourism Coll, Wuhu 241000, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Sci & Technol China, Dept Earth & Space Sci, Anhua 230026, Peoples R China

[3] Inst Hydroelect Luan, Luan 237000, Peoples R China

来源：

CHINESE GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCE | 2007年 / 17卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

grey-markov theory; GM (1,1); Markov chain; flood forecast; Chaohu Lake basin;

D O I：

10.1007/s11769-007-0064-3

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Flood is one kind of unexpected and the most common natural disasters, which is affected by many factors and has complex mechanism. At home and abroad, there is still no mature theory and method used for the long-term forecast of natural precipitation at present. In the present paper the disadvantages of grey GM (1, 1) and Markov chain are analyzed, and Grey-Markov forecast theory about flood is put forward and then the modifying model is developed by making prediction of Chaohu Lake basin. Hydrological law was conducted based on the theoretical forecasts by grey system GM (1, 1) forecast model with improved Markov chain. The above method contained Stat-analysis, embodying scientific approach, precise forecast and its reliable results.

引用

页码：64 / 68

页数：5

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